Armstrong Flooring, Inc. :AFI-US: Earnings Analysis: Q3, 2017 By the Numbers : November 8, 2017

Armstrong Flooring, Inc. reports financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2017.

We analyze the earnings along side the following peers of Armstrong Flooring, Inc. – Armstrong World Industries, Inc., BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. and Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (AWI-US, BMCH-US and APOG-US) that have also reported for this period.

Highlights

  • Summary numbers: Revenues of USD 308.20 million, Net Earnings of USD -18.70 million.
  • Gross margins narrowed from 21.62% to 10.19% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now 5.81% from 8.27%.
  • Year-on-year change in operating cash flow of 17.80% is about the same as the change in earnings, likely no significant movement in accruals or reserves.
  • Narrowing of operating margins contributed to decline in earnings.

The table below shows the preliminary results and recent trends for key metrics such as revenues and net income growth:

2017-09-30 2017-06-30 2017-03-31 2016-12-31 2016-09-30
Relevant Numbers (Quarterly)
Revenues (mil) 308.2 297.4 265.3 271.5 313.2
Revenue Growth (%YOY) -1.6 -8.01 -6.39 N/A N/A
Earnings (mil) -18.7 5.4 -7.8 -6.3 8.3
Earnings Growth (%YOY) -325.3 -5.26 -81.4 N/A N/A
Net Margin (%) -6.07 1.82 -2.94 -2.32 2.65
EPS -0.7 0.19 -0.28 -0.23 0.29
Return on Equity (%) -3.17 0.88 -1.26 -1.01 1.36
Return on Assets (%) -7.92 2.26 -3.39 -2.81 3.54

Access our Ratings and Scores for Armstrong Flooring, Inc.

Market Share Versus Profits

Revenues History
Earnings History

AFI-US’s change in revenue this period compared to the same period last year of -1.60% is almost the same as its change in earnings, and is about average among the announced results thus far in its peer group, suggesting that AFI-US is holding onto its market share. Also, for comparison purposes, revenues changed by 3.63% and earnings by -446.30% compared to the immediate last period.

Revenues Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Leader, Earnings Focus, Laggard, Revenues Focus

Earnings Growth Analysis

The company’s year-on-year decline in earnings was influenced by a weakening in gross margins from 21.62% to 10.19%, as well as issues with cost controls. As a result, operating margins (EBITDA margins) went from 8.27% to 5.81% in this time frame. For comparison, gross margins were 19.23% and EBITDA margins were 7.57% in the previous period.

Gross Margin Versus EBITDA Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Differentiated; Low Cost, Commodity; Low Cost, Commodity; High Cost, Differentiated; High Cost

Gross Margin Trend

Companies sometimes sacrifice improvements in revenues and margins in order to extend friendlier terms to customers and vendors. Capital Cube probes for such activity by comparing the changes in gross margins with any changes in working capital. If the gross margins improved without a worsening of working capital, it is possible that the company’s performance is a result of truly delivering in the marketplace and not simply an accounting prop-up using the balance sheet.

Gross Margin History
Working Capital Days History

AFI-US’s decline in gross margins were offset by some improvements on the balance sheet. The management of working capital, for example, shows progress. The company’s working capital days are now 79.10 days from 79.38 days for the same period last year. This leads Capital Cube to conclude that the gross margin decline is not altogether bad.

Gross Margin Versus Working Capital Days

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Customer Financed, Cash Starved, Supplier Financed, Cash Rich

Cash Versus Earnings – Sustainable Performance?

It is important to examine a company�s cash versus earnings numbers to gauge whether its performance is sustainable.

AFI-US’s change in operating cash flow of 17.80% compared to the same period last year is about the same as its change in earnings this period. Additionally, this change in operating cash flow is about average among its peer group. This suggests that the company did not use accruals or reserves to manage earnings this period, and that, all else being equal, the earnings number is sustainable.

Operating Cash Flow Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Cash Flow based Earnings, Likely Non-cash Earnings, Low Cash Flow Base, Likely Undeclared Earnings

Margins

The company’s decline in earnings has been influenced by the following factors: (1) Decline in operating margins (EBIT margins) from 4.44% to -5.81% and (2) one-time items that contributed to a decrease in pretax margins from 4.21% to -10.06%

EBIT Margin Versus PreTax Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Operation driven Earnings, One-time Favorables, Low Earnings Base, One-time Unfavorables
EBIT Margin History
PreTax Margin History

Access our Ratings and Scores for Armstrong Flooring, Inc.

Company Profile

Armstrong Flooring, Inc. engages in the production of resilient and wood flooring products. Its residential flooring products include hardwood, vinyl sheet, luxury vinyl plank and tile, vinyl tile, laminate and linoleum. The firm’s commercial flooring solutions include bio-flooring, hardwood, laminate, linoleum and luxury vinyl tile. Its products are primarily used in the construction and renovation of residential, commercial and institutional buildings. The company designs, manufactures and sells its range of products throughout North America and the Pacific Rim. Armstrong Flooring was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Lancaster, PA.

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