Guess?, Inc. :GES-US: Earnings Analysis: Q4, 2017 By the Numbers : March 31, 2017

Guess?, Inc. reports financial results for the quarter ended January 31, 2017.

We analyze the earnings along side the following peers of Guess?, Inc. – Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A, Gap, Inc., Urban Outfitters, Inc., American Eagle Outfitters, Inc., Kate Spade & Co, PVH Corp., Steven Madden, Ltd., Carter’s, Inc., bebe stores, inc. and Ross Stores, Inc. (ANF-US, GPS-US, URBN-US, AEO-US, KATE-US, PVH-US, SHOO-US, CRI-US, BEBE-US and ROST-US) that have also reported for this period.

Highlights

  • Summary numbers: Revenues of USD 679.27 million, Net Earnings of USD 6.45 million.
  • Gross margins narrowed from 36.35% to 34.77% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now 10.58% from 13.07%.
  • Year-on-year change in operating cash flow of -10.87% is about the same as the change in earnings, likely no significant movement in accruals or reserves.
  • Narrowing of operating margins contributed to decline in earnings.

The table below shows the preliminary results and recent trends for key metrics such as revenues and net income growth:

2017-01-31 2016-10-31 2016-07-31 2016-04-30 2016-01-31
Relevant Numbers (Quarterly)
Revenues (mil) 679.27 536.32 544.96 448.82 658.26
Revenue Growth (%YOY) 3.19 2.95 -0.24 -6.27 -5.52
Earnings (mil) 6.45 8.98 32.03 -25.33 47.61
Earnings Growth (%YOY) -86.45 -27.06 76.51 -877.65 -11.31
Net Margin (%) 0.95 1.67 5.88 -5.64 7.23
EPS 0.08 0.11 0.38 -0.3 0.57
Return on Equity (%) 2.58 3.51 12.43 -9.8 18.53
Return on Assets (%) 1.66 2.28 8.19 -6.55 12.44

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Market Share Versus Profits

Revenues History
Earnings History

GES-US‘s change in revenue this period compared to the same period last year of 3.19% is almost the same as its change in earnings, and is about average among the announced results thus far in its peer group, suggesting that GES-US is holding onto its market share. Also, for comparison purposes, revenues changed by 26.65% and earnings by -28.14% compared to the immediate last period.

Revenues Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Leader, Earnings Focus, Laggard, Revenues Focus

Earnings Growth Analysis

The company’s year-on-year decline in earnings was influenced by a weakening in gross margins from 36.35% to 34.77%, as well as issues with cost controls. As a result, operating margins (EBITDA margins) went from 13.07% to 10.58% in this time frame. For comparison, gross margins were 33.47% and EBITDA margins were 6.05% in the previous period.

Gross Margin Versus EBITDA Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Differentiated; Low Cost, Commodity; Low Cost, Commodity; High Cost, Differentiated; High Cost

Gross Margin Trend

Companies sometimes sacrifice improvements in revenues and margins in order to extend friendlier terms to customers and vendors. Capital Cube probes for such activity by comparing the changes in gross margins with any changes in working capital. If the gross margins improved without a worsening of working capital, it is possible that the company’s performance is a result of truly delivering in the marketplace and not simply an accounting prop-up using the balance sheet.

Gross Margin History
Working Capital Days History

GES-US‘s decline in gross margins were offset by some improvements on the balance sheet. The management of working capital, for example, shows progress. The company’s working capital days have fallen to 93.07 days from 99.00 days for the same period last year. This leads Capital Cube to conclude that the gross margin decline is not altogether bad.

Gross Margin Versus Working Capital Days

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Customer Financed, Cash Starved, Supplier Financed, Cash Rich

Cash Versus Earnings – Sustainable Performance?

It is important to examine a company�s cash versus earnings numbers to gauge whether its performance is sustainable.

GES-US‘s change in operating cash flow of -10.87% compared to the same period last year is about the same as its change in earnings this period. Additionally, this change in operating cash flow is about average among its peer group. This suggests that the company did not use accruals or reserves to manage earnings this period, and that, all else being equal, the earnings number is sustainable.

Operating Cash Flow Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Cash Flow based Earnings, Likely Non-cash Earnings, Low Cash Flow Base, Likely Undeclared Earnings

Margins

The company’s decline in earnings has been influenced by the following factors: (1) Decline in operating margins (EBIT margins) from 10.54% to 7.91% and (2) one-time items that contributed to a decrease in pretax margins from 10.63% to 3.71%

EBIT Margin Versus PreTax Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Operation driven Earnings, One-time Favorables, Low Earnings Base, One-time Unfavorables
EBIT Margin History
PreTax Margin History

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Company Profile

Guess?, Inc. engages in the design, marketing, distribution and licensing of contemporary apparel and accessories for men, women and children that reflect the American lifestyle and European fashion sensibilities. Its apparel is marketed under numerous trademarks including GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO and Gc. Its product lines include full collections of clothing, including jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, knitwear and intimate apparel. It operates its business through five segments: North American Retail, Europe, Asia, North American Wholesale and Licensing. The company was founded by Paul Marciano and Maurice Marciano in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, CA.

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