Swift Transportation Co. :SWFT-US: Earnings Analysis: Q4, 2016 By the Numbers : March 17, 2017

Swift Transportation Co. reports financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2016.

We analyze the earnings along side the following peers of Swift Transportation Co. – USA Truck, Inc., Celadon Group, Inc., Heartland Express, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. Class A, Knight Transportation, Inc., Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc., Werner Enterprises, Inc. and Marten Transport, Ltd. (USAK-US, CGI-US, HTLD-US, JBHT-US, CVTI-US, KNX-US, ULH-US, WERN-US and MRTN-US) that have also reported for this period.

Highlights

  • Summary numbers: Revenues of USD 1,038.61 million, Net Earnings of USD 50.44 million.
  • Gross margins narrowed from 18.43% to 15.17% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now 14.19% from 16.97%.
  • Year-on-year change in operating cash flow of -35.24% is about the same as the change in earnings, likely no significant movement in accruals or reserves.
  • Narrowing of operating margins contributed to decline in earnings.

The table below shows the preliminary results and recent trends for key metrics such as revenues and net income growth:

2016-12-31 2016-09-30 2016-06-30 2016-03-31 2015-12-31
Relevant Numbers (Quarterly)
Revenues (mil) 1038.61 1013.23 1011.85 967.82 1089.8
Revenue Growth (%YOY) -4.7 -4.86 -4.49 -4.66 -4.36
Earnings (mil) 50.44 24.02 42.9 31.91 72.5
Earnings Growth (%YOY) -30.43 -33.78 -15.81 -15.68 23.95
Net Margin (%) 4.86 2.37 4.24 3.3 6.65
EPS 0.38 0.18 0.32 0.23 0.51
Return on Equity (%) 31.42 15.74 28.23 20.85 47.18
Return on Assets (%) 7.34 3.48 6.08 4.41 9.84

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Market Share Versus Profits

Revenues History
Earnings History

SWFT-US‘s change in revenue this period compared to the same period last year of -4.70% is almost the same as its change in earnings, and is about average among the announced results thus far in its peer group, suggesting that SWFT-US is holding onto its market share. Also, for comparison purposes, revenues changed by 2.51% and earnings by 109.97% compared to the immediate last period.

Revenues Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Leader, Earnings Focus, Laggard, Revenues Focus

Earnings Growth Analysis

The company’s year-on-year decline in earnings was influenced by a weakening in gross margins from 18.43% to 15.17%, as well as issues with cost controls. As a result, operating margins (EBITDA margins) went from 16.97% to 14.19% in this time frame. For comparison, gross margins were 4.08% and EBITDA margins were 10.43% in the previous period.

Gross Margin Versus EBITDA Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Differentiated; Low Cost, Commodity; Low Cost, Commodity; High Cost, Differentiated; High Cost

Gross Margin Trend

Companies sometimes sacrifice improvements in revenues and margins in order to extend friendlier terms to customers and vendors. Capital Cube probes for such activity by comparing the changes in gross margins with any changes in working capital. If the gross margins improved without a worsening of working capital, it is possible that the company’s performance is a result of truly delivering in the marketplace and not simply an accounting prop-up using the balance sheet.

Gross Margin History
Working Capital Days History

SWFT-US‘s decline in gross margins has not produced any significant offsetting improvement in its working capital . This leads Capital Cube to conclude that the decline in gross margins are likely from operating issues and not trade-offs with the balance sheet. Working capital days are currently 20.92 days, compared to last year’s level of 15.37 days.

Gross Margin Versus Working Capital Days

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Customer Financed, Cash Starved, Supplier Financed, Cash Rich

Cash Versus Earnings – Sustainable Performance?

It is important to examine a company�s cash versus earnings numbers to gauge whether its performance is sustainable.

SWFT-US‘s change in operating cash flow of -35.24% compared to the same period last year is about the same as its change in earnings this period. Additionally, this change in operating cash flow is about average among its peer group. This suggests that the company did not use accruals or reserves to manage earnings this period, and that, all else being equal, the earnings number is sustainable.

Operating Cash Flow Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Cash Flow based Earnings, Likely Non-cash Earnings, Low Cash Flow Base, Likely Undeclared Earnings

Margins

The company’s decline in earnings has been influenced by the following factors: (1) Decline in operating margins (EBIT margins) from 10.39% to 7.21% and (2) one-time items that contributed to a decrease in pretax margins from 10.54% to 6.73%

EBIT Margin Versus PreTax Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Operation driven Earnings, One-time Favorables, Low Earnings Base, One-time Unfavorables
EBIT Margin History
PreTax Margin History

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Company Profile

Swift Transportation Co. engages in the provision of transportation solutions. It operates through the following segments: Truckload, Dedicated, Central Refrigerated, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment consists of one-way movements over irregular routes throughout the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The Dedicated segment offers tailored solutions under long-term contracts. The Central Refrigerated segment consists of shipments for customers that require temperature-controlled trailers. The Intermodal segment includes revenues generated by moving freight over the rail in the company’s containers and other trailing equipment, and revenues for drayage to transport loads between the railheads and customer locations. The company was founded by Jerry C. Moyes in 1966 and is headquartered in Phoenix, AZ.

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