Valley National Bancorp :VLY-US: Earnings Analysis: Q4, 2016 By the Numbers : March 14, 2017

Valley National Bancorp reports financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2016.

We analyze the earnings along side the following peers of Valley National Bancorp – Sun Bancorp, Inc., Lakeland Bancorp, Inc., M&T Bank Corporation, Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation, Sussex Bancorp, Two River Bancorp, Universal Electronics Inc., Unity Bancorp, Inc., Bancorp of New Jersey, Inc. and Sharp Corporation (SNBC-US, LBAI-US, MTB-US, PGC-US, SBBX-US, TRCB-US, UEIC-US, UNTY-US, BKJ-US and SHCAF-US) that have also reported for this period.

Highlights

  • Summary numbers: Revenues of USD 196.71 million, Net Earnings of USD 50.09 million.
  • Net interest income margins narrowed from 87.48% to 83.57% compared to the same period last year.
  • Net loan assets changed 7.43% compared to same period last year and 3.62% from previous period, total deposits changed 9.09% compared to same period last year and 4.47% from previous period.
  • Year-on-year change in operating cash flow of 1,715.99% is about the same as the change in earnings, likely no significant movement in accruals or reserves.
  • Earnings growth from operating margin improvements as well as from one-time items.

The table below shows the preliminary results and recent trends for key metrics such as revenues and net income (See complete table at the end of this report):

2016-12-31 2016-09-30 2016-06-30 2016-03-31 2015-12-31
Relevant Numbers (Quarterly)
Revenues (mil) 196.71 178.68 175 169.6 169.23
Revenue Growth (%YOY) 16.24 14.97 12.23 12.76 16.37
Earnings (mil) 50.09 42.84 39.03 36.19 4.67
Earnings Growth (%YOY) 972.36 19.16 21.99 19.27 -81.42
Net Margin (%) 25.46 23.98 22.3 21.34 2.76
EPS 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.01
Return on Equity (%) 8.34 7.31 6.69 6.22 0.55
Return on Assets (%) 0.88 0.78 0.72 0.67 0.09

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Market Share Versus Profits

Revenues History
Earnings History

VLY-US‘s change in revenue this period compared to the same period last year of 16.24% is almost the same as its change in earnings, and is about average among the announced results thus far in its peer group, suggesting that VLY-US is holding onto its market share. Also, for comparison purposes, revenues changed by 10.09% and earnings by 16.92% compared to the immediate last period.

Revenues Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Leader, Earnings Focus, Laggard, Revenues Focus

Earnings Growth Analysis

VLY-US‘s earnings rose year-on-year. But this growth has not come as a result of improvement in net interest income margins or any loan loss improvement activities in its operations. Net interest income margins were 83.57% compared to 86.26% in the immediate last period. Net interest income after provisions margins were 81.64% this period compared to 83.00% in the previous period. In addition, loan loss provisions as a percentage of net interest income were 2.31% this period and 2.37% a year ago.

Net Interest Income Margin Versus Loan Loss Provisions Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

High Risk; High Reward Loans, Risky Loan Portfolio, Conservative Loan Portfolio, Safer Loan Portfolio
Net Interest Income Margin History
Loan Loss Provisions Margin History

Net Loans and Total Deposits

A financial institution’s core operations represented by Net Interest Income and Net Interest Income after Provisions are dependent on both the growth and quality of its deposits as well as the growth and quality of its loans. A firm could boost its interest income in the short-term by just increasing its loan assets with less concern about their quality – but this would eventually lead to greater loan loss provisions. Similarly a drive to increase deposits could result in higher interest expenses and eventually effect the firm’s equity. It is thus important to understand net interest income performance in context to loan loss provisions, loan assets and deposits.

Loan Assets Growth Rate History (Qtr YOY)
Total Deposits Growth Rate History (Qtr YOY)

The firm’s decline in net interest income margins was influenced primarily by the relative increase in the levels of net loan assets. On an absolute basis, net loan assets changed 7.43% compared to the same period last year and 3.62% from the previous period, while total deposits changed 9.09% compared to the same period last year and 4.47% from the previous period.

Cash Versus Earnings – Sustainable Performance?

It is important to examine a company�s cash versus earnings numbers to gauge whether its performance is sustainable.

VLY-US‘s change in operating cash flow of 1,715.99% compared to the same period last year is about the same as its change in earnings this period. Additionally, this change in operating cash flow is about average among its peer group. This suggests that the company did not use accruals or reserves to manage earnings this period, and that, all else being equal, the earnings number is sustainable.

Operating Cash Flow Growth Versus Earnings Growth

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Cash Flow based Earnings, Likely Non-cash Earnings, Low Cash Flow Base, Likely Undeclared Earnings

Margins

The company’s earnings growth has also been influenced by the following factors: (1) Improvements in operating margins from 24.79% to 34.61% and (2) one-time items. The company’s pretax margins are now 34.79%, compared to -3.73% for the same period last year.

EBIT Margin History
PreTax Margin History
EBIT Margin Versus PreTax Margin

Quadrant label definitions. Hover to know more

Operation driven Earnings, One-time Favorables, Low Earnings Base, One-time Unfavorables

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Company Profile

Valley National Bancorp is a bank holding company, which engages in the provision of retail and commercial banking services. It operates through the following segments: Consumer Lending; Commercial Lending; Investment Management; and Corporate & Other Adjustments. The Consumer Lending segment offers mortgage, automobile, and home equity loans. The Commercial Lending segment deals with industrial and real estate financing services. The Investment Management segment includes securities investment, retirement funds, educational plans, and financial and estate planning. The Corporate & Other Adjustments segment consists of securities gains and losses, net impairment losses, and net trading. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Wayne, NJ.

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